A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
